The 2023 MLB season is now two months old, so it’s time to check in on those World Series odds.
While both New York teams stumbled out of the gate, we’ve seen a bit of a resurgence of late with the Yankees sitting at 35-25 and in third place in the AL East and the Mets coming in at 30-29 and in third place in the NL East.
However, the biggest story in baseball so far has been the dominance of the Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers. The Rays are the best team in baseball with a 41-19 record, but the Rangers have an absurd +143 run differential, which is 25 runs better than Tampa. They are the only two teams with a run differential greater than +60, so they have been far and away the two most dominant teams so far.
Will that reflect in the updated odds?
2023 World Series Odds
|Team||Odds to win|
|Los Angeles Dodgers||+500|
|Tampa Bay Rays||+600|
|New York Yankees||+900|
|New York Mets||+1600|
|Toronto Blue Jays||+1700|
|San Diego Padres||+1900|
Odds courtesy of Draftkings Sportsbook, click here to see up-to-date odds.
The Braves (+425), up from +725, were one of my favorite bets when they were listed at +950 prior to Spring Training and those odds have now gone up rather significantly. Even with injuries in their rotation, Atlanta keeps calling up serviceable young pitchers, and this offense has the third-most runs scored in the NL. The Braves won the NL East last season, and seem the clear favorite to do so again; however, if you missed the bet earlier in the year, I would wait before placing it now.
The Rays (+600) are the biggest mover, up from +1600. We covered the key things about them above. Everybody thinks of them as a pitching team, but they have the second-most runs scored in all of baseball and have the most stolen base attempts in the league. They get on base and run wild and manufacture runs. However, the big question is if the injuries to their rotation will come back to bite them in the postseason format.
The Astros (+650) remain a favorite after coming down from +600 in March when they were the betting favorites. Jose Altuve is back, but Jose Abreu has seemingly lost all power. The rotation lost Luis Garcia for the season, but Hunter Brown is emerging as a legit top-tier starter. However, Houston has a battle on their hands with Texas.
The Yankees (+900) are down from +750 back in March and are still a team riddled with injuries. However, they are playing well enough despite all of that to make a playoff push and if they can get either Frankie Montas or Carlos Rodon back, this could be a solid rotation come the postseason.
The Padres (+1900) have fallen down from +950 and are just not clicking right now. They still have clear talent with players like Juan Soto, Josh Hader, Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, and Fernando Tatis Jr, but both Bogaerts and Machado are battling wrist injuries and sometimes teams just don’t click. Still, at these odds, they could be worth a small bet.
I didn’t love the betting odds for the Mets back when it was at +950, but now that the Mets are +1600 I think it’s more palatable. I just really don’t see it with their lineup right now, unless they make a move. Too much is riding on an aging pitching staff anchored by Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander and a depleted bullpen.
Last time, I mentioned the Blue Jays (+1700) when they were at +1300, so I clearly still like them at +1700. Last season, they recorded their second-straight 90-win season, and while they have been inconsistent this season, they are another team filled with talent.
Given all that I said in the intro, how are the Rangers (+1700)? They are one of the best offenses in baseball and should be getting Jacob deGrom back soon. They have shown they will spend money to contend, so they could also be big players at the trade deadline.